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Visualization - Food Production vs. Rising Temp. & CO2 Levels


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Posted 2019-02-15 1:49 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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I decided to break this into a seperate thread from here: https://www.hpcfactor.com/forums/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=18533&st... because I suspect the topic of 'Brexit' will heat up as the time approaches.
It will be interesting to see how the most efficient food producing system in the World (U.S. Agriculture) waxes and wanes against steadily increasing temperatures and CO2 levels.

2018 at a glance.
Corn, peanuts and sweet potato were down slightly from last year while wheat, rice, oats, soybeans and sugarcane increased and sorghum stayed the same.
Potatoes set an all time harvest record.
2018 ranked 4th globally and 7th nationally in the top 10 hottest years on record. CO2 reached an all time high in ppm since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Harvest data came from https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/croptr...

and:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/crop02...

CO2 data came from here:

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt


Temperature data came from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201813

and:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201813

Edited by Mjolnir 2019-02-15 2:11 PM




(Crops_2018.png)



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Posted 2019-02-15 2:15 PM
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I wonder if this correlates with the oil price / production too.
Especially corn, since it makes corn ethanol / biofuel.

This came of interest to me:
Cost-effectiveness of biofuels and their ability to cut fossil fuel use questioned
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111129123255.htm

It might be interesting to add a oil price data along with the all the other data...
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Posted 2019-02-15 2:59 PM
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Have you got any metrics on the "most efficient" food producers? I can find top exporters (by value: you, Germany, us, China; by quantity: China, you, India, Brazil). But efficiency, not really. It's not a very precise descriptor really, 'efficiency'.

We had the first decent summer in possibly 15 or 16 years last year. So I suspect that means there were winners and losers domestically.
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Posted 2019-02-15 2:59 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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stingraze - 2019-02-15 2:15 PM

I wonder if this correlates with the oil price / production too.
Especially corn, since it makes corn ethanol / biofuel.

This came of interest to me:
Cost-effectiveness of biofuels and their ability to cut fossil fuel use questioned
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111129123255.htm

It might be interesting to add a oil price data along with the all the other data...


Interesting idea - I may try that in next years iteration.
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Posted 2019-02-15 3:14 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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C:Amie - 2019-02-15 2:59 PM

Have you got any metrics on the "most efficient" food producers? I can find top exporters (by value: you, Germany, us, China; by quantity: China, you, India, Brazil). But efficiency, not really. It's not a very precise descriptor really, 'efficiency'.

We had the first decent summer in possibly 15 or 16 years last year. So I suspect that means there were winners and losers domestically.
Not really. The U.S., you guys, Canada and a few others put out what I would consider reliable info but getting data from China, India and many other Nations that you can trust is problematic.
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Posted 2019-02-18 5:23 PM
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I'm still none the wiser then.

Out of interest, Mjolnir, what's your background / interest in all this. Why do you run the numbers?
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Posted 2019-02-20 6:49 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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C:Amie - 2019-02-18 5:23 PM

I'm still none the wiser then.

Out of interest, Mjolnir, what's your background / interest in all this. Why do you run the numbers?

I took an 'early out' at a local factory in 1997, decided I needed something to keep me busy, so I turned my gardening hobby into an income source selling vegetables at local farmer's markets. I was already pursuing my foraging interests and had developed a reputation as a 'naturalist' with a fair bit of knowledge and expertise about the local area.
I attend, and sometimes speak at area events - Master Gardener meetings, school events, etc. and I began to hear well meaning people talk about the effects of herbicide/insecticide over-use and how native pollinators and the introduced European honeybee were negatively affected and the devastating effects pollinator population decline would have on our food supply.
Over time the plight of the pollinators was tied into 'global warming' and the litany became that bees are dieing off for various reasons and as the World warms our food supply was facing a catastrophic decline. That's just simply not factual. Not yet anyway.
From the standpoint of protein and calories the great majority of the World's food supply comes from the wind pollinated 'grass' family, legumes and tubers and gets little if any benefit from any pollinator, honeybee or otherwise. Some, but not all, fruits and veggies would be affected but when you actually research it, surprisingly few and those few have substitutes.
Charting out yields vs. temps and CO2 levels is just a way to visualize food supply/'Global Warming.' I doubt I'll be around long enough to see any change in the trend of increasing yields but who knows? They keep saying the "tipping point" is near.
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Posted 2019-02-20 6:54 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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C:Amie - 2019-02-15 2:59 PM

Have you got any metrics on the "most efficient" food producers? I can find top exporters (by value: you, Germany, us, China; by quantity: China, you, India, Brazil). But efficiency, not really. It's not a very precise descriptor really, 'efficiency'. ...
I agree. I do have some data I'm working on but I'm not sure how valuable it will be. Later.
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Posted 2019-02-21 3:07 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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This compilation of data came from here: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/
and: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

I listed several crops that make-up the bulk of the World's food supply using a Country's planted area and production as the first and second critera.
Potato data came from here: http://www.thedailyrecords.com/2018-2019-2020-2021/world-famous-top...


%Total Production = TP %Total Area = TA
CORN
China 42.40 (Million hectares) 06.11 (Metric tons per hectare) 24.0% TP - 22.3% TA
U.S 33.48 (Million hectares) 11.08 (Metric tons per hectare) 34.5% TP - 17.6% TA
Brazil 04.94 (Million hectares) 04.94 (Metric tons per hectare) 07.6% TP - 08.7% TA

Canada 01.41 (Million hectares) 10.02 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP

WHEAT
India 30.79 (Million hectares) 03.20 (Metric tons per hectare) 12.9% TP - 13.9% TA
Russia 27.34 (Million hectares) 03.11 (Metric tons per hectare) 11.1% TP - 12.4% TA
European Union 26.08 (Million hectares) 05.80 (Metric tons per hectare) 19.8% TP - 11.9% TA
China 24.51 (Million hectares) 05.48 (Metric tons per hectare) 17.6% TP - 11.1% TA
United States 15.20 (Million hectares) 03.12 (Metric tons per hectare) 06.2% TP - 06.9% TA

Egypt 01.32 (Million hectares) 06.40 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP

RICE
India 43.79 (Million hectares) 03.87 (Metric tons per hectare) 22.8% TP - 26.9% TA
China 30.75 (Million hectares) 06.92 (Metric tons per hectare) 30.0% TP - 18.9% TA
Indonesia 12.25 (Million hectares) 04.76 (Metric tons per hectare) 07.4% TP - 07.5% TA
Bangladesh 11.27 (Million hectares) 04.35 (Metric tons per hectare) 06.5% TP - 06.9% TA
Thailand 10.68 (Million hectares) 02.89 (Metric tons per hectare) 04.1% TP - 06.5% TA

United States 00.96 (Million hectares) 08.41 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP

Potato
The annual production for potatoes in China are 96.13 million tons which is an equivalent to 25.4%.
The production in India is approximated to be 45.4 million tons per years which is equivalent to 12% of the global production.
The annual potato production in Russia is estimated to stand at 31.5 million tons which is equated to 8.0% of global production.
The country [Ukraine] produces about 23.7 million tons of potatoes every year which is estimated to be 5.9% of global production.
The annual production of potatoes in United States is approximately 20.05 million tons which translates to 5.2% of global production.

SOYBEANS
Brazil 35.15 (Million hectares) 03.44 (Metric tons per hectare) 35.5% TP - 28.1% TA
United States 36.24 (Million hectares) 03.31 (Metric tons per hectare) 35.3% TP - 29.0% TA
Argentina 16.30 (Million hectares) 02.32 (Metric tons per hectare) 11.1% TP - 13.0% TA
India 10.40 (Million hectares) 00.80 (Metric tons per hectare) 02.4% TP - 08.3% TA
China 08.25 (Million hectares) 01.84 (Metric tons per hectare) 04.4% TP - 06.6% TA

European Union 00.93 (Million hectares) 02.88 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP

PEANUTS
India 04.93 (Million hectares) 01.35 (Metric tons per hectare) 14.8% TP - 19.0% TA
China 04.61 (Million hectares) 03.71 (Metric tons per hectare) 38.0% TP - 17.7% TA
Nigeria 02.70 (Million hectares) 01.19 (Metric tons per hectare) 07.1% TP - 10.4% TA
Sudan 01.80 (Million hectares) 00.78 (Metric tons per hectare) 03.1% TP - 06.9% TA

United States 00.72 (Million hectares) 04.49 (Metric tons per hectare) 07.1% TP - 02.7% TA


BARLEY
European Union 12.09 (Million hectares) 04.87 (Metric tons per hectare) 40.8% TP - 25.1% TA
Russia 07.85 (Million hectares) 02.57 (Metric tons per hectare) 13.9% TP - 16.3% TA
Australia 03.90 (Million hectares) 02.28 (Metric tons per hectare) 06.1% TP - 08.1% TA
United States 00.79 (Million hectares) 03.93 (Metric tons per hectare) 02.1% TP - 01.6% TA

India 00.66 (Million hectares) 02.67 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP


OATS
Russia 02.78 (Million hectares) 01.96 (Metric tons per hectare) 23.2% TP - 29.2% TA
European Union 02.68 (Million hectares) 03.01 (Metric tons per hectare) 34.4% TP - 28.1% TA
Canada 01.05 (Million hectares) 03.55 (Metric tons per hectare) 15.9% TP - 11.0% TA
United States 00.33 (Million hectares) 02.22 (Metric tons per hectare) 03.0% TP - 00.3% TA

New Zealand 00.01 (Million hectares) 05.67 (Metric tons per hectare) .0012

SORGHUM
Sudan 06.30 (Million hectares) 00.59 (Metric tons per hectare) 06.4% TP - 15.7% TA
Nigeria 05.80 (Million hectares) 01.09 (Metric tons per hectare) 10.9% TP - 14.4% TA
India 04.83 (Million hectares) 01.03 (Metric tons per hectare) 08.5% TP - 12.0% TA
United States 02.04 (Million hectares) 04.50 (Metric tons per hectare) 15.9% TP - 05.0% TA

European Union 00.12 (Million hectares) 05.41 (Metric tons per hectare) 01% TP

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Posted 2019-02-21 4:36 PM
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Why am I not surprised to see us on those lists.

I am surprised that the EU isn't more prominent, but then on reflection, I'm not. The EU exists to promulgate inefficient French market gardening techniques through dependent subsidisation methods, inhibiting the adoption of modern efficiencies and global competitiveness.

China being so high on the Potato league table is a little surprising, given how little it tends to feature in Chinese cuisine. The Chinese call the Potato Tudou, literally "Ground Pea".
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Posted 2019-02-21 5:11 PM
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Factorite (Senior)

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C:Amie - 2019-02-21 4:36 PM

Why am I not surprised to see us on those lists.

I am surprised that the EU isn't more prominent, but then on reflection, I'm not. The EU exists to promulgate inefficient French market gardening techniques through dependent subsidisation methods, inhibiting the adoption of modern efficiencies and global competitiveness.

China being so high on the Potato league table is a little surprising, given how little it tends to feature in Chinese cuisine. The Chinese call the Potato Tudou, literally "Ground Pea".
I've never been there but people I know say that the uptake in use of the potato is part of the 'moderization' efforts of the last couple of decades. They tell me that for instance baked bread as we know it was once extremely rare in Chinese cooking with most wheat products being steamed bums, dumplings or noodles but that now it is quite common in the big cities and Hong Kong.
I don't really think they have a choice. Even though they regularly out produce the U.S. in potatoes and wheat they and India are having an increasingly hard time keeping the growing middle classes fed.
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Posted 2019-02-22 10:36 AM
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We in Japan consume a lot of soy beans in Tofu. :-)

We like Tofu so much that Fujitsu named its supercomputer interconnect "Tofu interconnect".
http://www.fujitsu.com/global/Images/tofu-interconnect2_tcm100-1055...

Tofu is a very healthy and cheap (around $0.26 per slicing in some supermarkets, made from Canadian soy beans) (@ 110JPY / USD)
Japanese made Tofu are a little more expensive, but usually about a dollar or so.

Edited by stingraze 2019-02-22 10:36 AM
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