Are computers going to disappear?

Smartphones and tablets are getting more and more powerful and even reaching the same power as laptops. Do you think the computer is going to disappear?

Should this be in off-topic maybe?

Anyway, in a lot of ways they already have. I work in industry doing data processing and a certain amount of on-site technical support. One thing I’ve noticed is more and more we’re getting employees who’s only “computer” is a phone or tablet. It’s not just the younger people coming in either. I’ve got 30 to 50 year olds, people who should have had exposure, enough to acquire a basic proficiency with using software on a PC that are coming in and needing help making USB webcams or even their email work.

I can’t count how many times I’ve had to put icons for everything from the company homepage to the web-mail portal, to bloody Excel right on the desktop because they can’t manage the bookmarks that are pre-loaded or navigating the start menu comfortably. We did a new HR solution roll out and I had to get manual login credentials for a fair percentage of the workforce ‘cause they don’t have email! There’s a big chunk of people who only know enough about their computer to do what they have to for their job and don’t even have one at home. Technology is more ubiquitous than ever but the form it’s taken is not one that revolves around desktops and laptops anymore. It’s wild.

Moved to Off Topic

As I have maintained by saying over the years. Phones and tablets are consumption devices. There is limited scope for high efficiency, fast content creation on a tablet, not without accepting restraints and limitations on imagination, workflow and time. The line will eventually blur, however input and HCI paradigms associated with the desktop will still dominate for content creation tasks. The change will be in that you can just pickup the processor of the device and use the same device for personal consumption duties.

The number of people who create on a computer is significantly reducing though. The vast majority of users are content to work within those limitations - image and video editing is simplified and restricted to the limits of someone else's imagination, email and note taking is laborious, slow and occasional. The web is about browsing or (again) creating within the confines of someone else's point and click imagination. Coding is about bolting boxes together on a GUI, not actual in-depth code.

I spend a lot of time (too much?) worrying about this, for a number of reasons:

- Smartphones / tablets are much more of a 'black box' than are laptop and desktop computers, with very little scope for upgrades of hardware or software - In the case of Android devices often stuck for life on the kernel they shipped with. A bit odd to be moaning about this here, I realise! But given the number of devices involved this ultimately translates into a lot of e-waste.

- As smartphones / tablets become more dominant, demand for PCs is likely to drop, eventually driving the prices back up to 'specialised / corporate only equipment' territory (I guess back to where they started really). I would imagine gamers will keep the parts market going for some time, but they're not exactly known for buying cheap. I worry that the days of building your own PC with dirt cheap parts and upgrading it / repairing it basically forever may come to an end.

- A lot of people, parents especially, but undoubtedly employers too, seem to believe that the amount of time kids / teens spend interacting with smartphones and tablets translates into some sort of expertise that they're gaining, where the reality is that they're typically using very simplified interfaces geared towards keeping them looking at ads as much as possible - So more like they're being programmed than becoming programmers. This assumption likely leads to schools / employers neglecting to teach basic skills around operating a computer, resulting in users like the ones yeek has encountered, who work on a computer all day but don't know how to operate the Start menu in Windows.

Re-reading this I sound so old, and this may all just come from my perspective of having grown up when computers in the home were still relatively rare and exciting, and you had to learn how to use them and fairly frequently fix things that had broken or figure out weird compatibility issues. Just like with cars and every other technology, the majority of users are (perfectly reasonably) happier using devices that they don't have to repair or maintain themselves and can just use without thinking. It just makes for a very boring-looking future for people like me...

@robertojones, exactly, I couldn't agree more.

The Android issue is a commercial choice though, that can be legislated out when, inevitably, a scary enough security exploit is found in a predominant number of old devices to force governments to force carriers to stop locking bootloaders.

I am not so sure that your rosy view for the gaming industry being the last bastion of our generation's view on what a computer actually is will hold up. As Internet connectivity gets faster and Microsoft/Google/NVidia throw more money into game streaming. I fear that is where the money will go. The games industry will force it too. No end user support, automated patching, guaranteed revenue, guaranteed DRM, seamless access to analytics backed by Google data mining to an extent that they never dreamed of, guaranteed access to a credit card via the streaming service for all those irresistible loot box cash-cows. Lees need to code a Win/Mac/Android/iOS version, the ability to universally withdraw a title once you want to insist that everyone move onto banner ad 2.0 sponsored by faceless corporation. No more pesky modding community refusing to let something die or creating open source cloud servers for multiplayer that you don't control. The ability to keep legacy titles accessible through emulation to keep revenue streams from the back-catalogue.

It'll be a gold mine for NVidia too frankly, they won't have to target consumer prices, they can sell chips to OEMs for integration, graphics cards to coin miners without fear of retribution and charge data centres whatever they want for actual GPU horse power.

Google want it because it will mean they can start nailing down the coffin lid on Windows. Both Chrome OS and Android will be able to handle high end gaming, pulling more people over to the service and locking them in. The entire developing world with a smartphone or tablet will never even need a PC/laptop.

As for the work place. I think my vision of a one device does it all is probably going to come true, but with a little more emphasis on most productivity workloads going via cloud services. Covid is really helping here, I've spent the last decade trying to get organisations to stop issuing desktop IT and offer mobile + docking. I think without exception, all those who refused this and went with desktop only or dual device policies have issued everyone with laptops now. Workstations will be a thing of the past because computer will be in the cloud. The office will be filled with thin clients skinned by Apple, Google or Microsoft. What is left of the humble desktop will be a thin-client, NUC's and screens, or even screen embedded operating systems (e.g. https://displaysolutions.samsung.com/monitor/detail/1762/32M70A which is a PC screen that has Smart TV + thin client + wireless presentation features in ROM)

I do think that computers will, inevitably, die. As mobile computing gains more popularity, people will be less interested in getting computers, or as others have said, will move to cloud computing, so instead of having computers in your house you will now have a dumb computer that connects to servers. In my opinion cloud computing isn't a good idea though, because even though infrastructure is evolving and now more people have internet access, at any moment the companies could just close the server with all your data, or a lightning bolt can struck electric lines, or some idiot could cut a line for no reason. Yes, cloud computing means you don't have to buy a lot of storage, as it's already on the server, but there's always a possibility that something could fail, making you lose all your data. As for mobile computing, I do like the idea of a portable computer you can take anywhere that can do a lot of things, however I don't think mobile devices are powerful enough to fully replace computers, at least for the time being. In conclusion, cloud computing could work in theory, but in practice there's a lot of factors to be taken into account, such as natural disasters, companies shutting down servers, or maybe idiots who manage to cut an electric line to make everyone miserable. Mobile computing could replace desktops, but probably not for the time being. Also Chrome OS is currently garbage as you need an internet connection in order to use about 90% of the OS, besides it can't do a lot of things other OSes can.

It strikes me that we're seeing the early stages of monolithic computer culture subdividing into two distinct groups. On the one side we have the content consumers mentioned; people with ultra mobile devices relying on a walled garden of apps and cloud services and seldom venturing outside. Then we have the far opposite of that; folks with complex home networks, multi-server households, a great stable of devices (whether used for content creation or not).

There's degrees of orthodoxy (for lack of a better word) in each group with some traditional users keeping a laptop or desktop on hand more out of habit than necessity, maybe using it to support one piece of tech (say an old GPS or even a CD/DVD burner). And power users who can't countenance life without a PC. It's the same with people who exclusively use a mobile device. Some of them just scroll and scroll one app or another but others are pushing the limits of that ecosystem, managing robust personal and business websites, churning out content and even doing business level computing. Microsoft's O365 can do almost everything on the cloud these days, and there's even AS400 and PC5250 terminal apps for iOS and Android too.

I don't think either tribe will ever die out, but I know which one will become dominant. After all, even the server owners and hardware hackers have Twitter accounts.

To answer the question directly…I hope so.

Nothing would make me happier than a massive worldwide EMP. When the culture and morals of civilization is based on the controlled disbursement of information, when children are exposed to the harsh realities of life before they are mature enough to understand it, hell, when you sit down at a dinner table and discuss something and someone feels the necessity to "Google" their response…we have lost something as a people.

Wow, you'd do anything to avoid talking to me wouldn't you Rich

Chris… you are one of the few I still do talk to…

All the software which can be moved to consumer OSes like Android/iOS/UWP will be shifted there for sure but there is exactly zero chance PCs are ever disappearing. There is whole world of PC users and even if you get more adoption of consumer OSes in cities there is still vast majority of world left who are moving slower. PC is also a cheaper than a consumer device and more granular (than virtualized+thin client combo) way to get better performance for almost any task, this is main reason why PCs are never fading away.

That's just part of great phenomena of the rapid technological progress. Immeasurable amounts of waste will be generated until it's optimized.

Making standard PC solutions is still cheaper than doing custom devices for same performance and functionality today. There is no way it comes to an end. Decades after IBM PC is introduced we still have lots of standards in place, and for a good reason. Might become less competitive of course tho but there is no way the price reduction for same performance is ever stopping.

I do not know specific about UK but that might be fixed during next 10 years when it will become evident that even communist China has better education than that. Competition between societies will do the job just fine in the end.

I did not expect that kind of optimism from you, Amie. The obvious course of action will be "yeah we made those 10 years ago so lets recycle them because why would we ever put any effort in what we already sold and do not own and also don't you dare to force us to do it".

It will take so long that we are just going to get real year of Linux on desktop before that. Linux distros will replace whatever other OSes will fail to be because it will be the only viable way to have computational independence. Also global properties of software development basically guarantee that there will never be a cloud platform which does everything PC can do not at the same quality, oh and did I mention network latency and that a lot of population still has data caps?

Edited by Alt Bass 2021-02-12 8:20 PM

I made a rant a few years ago regarding the iPad and content consumption, especially in regards to it edging out netbooks / devices with a physical keyboard. I do not believe computers will become less of a thing. Now I do believe types of computers will play a major role. For example, it's not often you find a person with a desktop PC nowadays. There's some, but for the majority it's either workstations (graphics, video etc.) or gamers with gaming rigs.

Most people I've seen use a laptop. It's easy to use as everything is self contained. This is a good medium for those who not only want to consume media, but create it as well. But those who just consume media, a tablet is probably the go-to device.

With technology moving at break-neck speed, especially in the phone market, even though they're not upgradeable they'll more than likely be able to handle anything thrown at it for many years to come. I've seen ten year old Android phones run recent builds of Android. (Albeit, sluggishly at times.)

I hate the consume culture. I do my best to make sure any device I own has a keyboard. I love the Microsoft Surface tablets, those are full fledged PC's in a tablet factor with a removable (and surprisingly decent) keyboard. Great for when I just want to read, watch a movie, or write a novel. (Or in my case, a long winded email.)

In closing - Screw anything without a keyboard.

I don't think computers will die.

More and more people are adopting Linux, and even Windows 10 can run Linux using WSL / WSL 2. This is due to the open source being very popular, and many users like Linux for their vast resource of open source tools.

Many more people are still going to use computing on premises even if cloud is available because some data aren't allowed on cloud, and there are restrictions about that such as medical data etc.

More people are now connected by SNS and many people who used to be scattered all over the web can now have a common place to share their technology love (like using Twitter). That will promote the use of using computers, and video SNS such as YouTube has tutorials for the most niche things. The YouTube videos will teach those who don't know how to do skill X in a very affordable way.

Cyber security related jobs aren't filled, and this field needs a "real computer" for most of the job.
So, although there will be a divide between the technical computer person and a more relaxed smartphone / tablet person, I am sure for many years there will still be the "regular" computers out there!

Edited by stingraze 2021-02-13 1:50 AM

Strictly speaking, we're not talking about the death of the computer, since all the devices we are describing (smartphones, tablets, etc) are computing devices. What we're really talking about is the evolution of computers - and computers have been evolving from day one, from room-sized mainframes to desktop units to clamshell notebooks/laptops to tablets to phones, and branching out in other directions along the way too.